The credibility of COP29 is under scrutiny due to the significant presence of the oil and gas industry. Previous conferences, particularly COP28 in the UAE, saw unprecedented participation from fossil fuel lobbyists, raising concerns about whether meaningful climate discussions and can be held.
With Azerbaijan – a major oil and gas producer – hosting COP29, fears have intensified the agenda will be biased towards industry interests rather than genuine efforts towards emissions reduction. Azerbaijan’s selection of high-level figures from its oil sector as negotiators, alongside plans to boost gas production to meet EU demand, has led critics to question the neutrality of the conference.
This year, however, COP29 organisers are reportedly taking steps to increase representation from non-governmental organisations (NGOs), particularly from the Global South. These independent, nonprofit groups are essential to international development and climate action, helping to balance the influence of fossil fuel lobbyists.
NGOs play a key role in holding governments to account and advocating for strong environmental policies. However, climate activists and watchdogs are still calling for stricter regulations to limit the participation of industry representatives with vested interests. Transparency International, for example, has advocated for COP reform to prevent undue fossil fuel influence and ensure a science-focused approach to climate solutions.
When Trump re-enters office, U.S. climate policy is expected to shift, with rollbacks on emissions regulations and renewable energy investments. Trump has expressed intentions to expand fossil fuel production and possibly withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which would inevitably hinder global efforts to meet climate goals.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will, however, limit Trump’s potential climate rollbacks because much of its funding is already committed to renewable projects, tax incentives, and infrastructure. Legal protections for allocated funds make it challenging to reverse these investments, while state policies, particularly in California, along with private sector momentum in clean energy, are expected to sustain much of the IRA’s climate impact, even if federal support decreases.
